GVMM is a best-in-class intelligence resource delivering a comprehensive market overview for over 20 global health vaccines. Linksbridge developed and maintains GVMM in collaboration with the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Gavi, PAHO, PATH, UNICEF, U.S. CDC, WHO, and others.
GVMM includes historical data and forecasted future intelligence (through 2040) on essential datapoints. All data is vetted by Linksbridge market experts and data scientists.
Existing users can log in at workspace.linksbridge.com using their work email addresses. For any questions, please contact [email protected]. Most new users can access GVMM data through the Global Health Markets Hub (GHMH). To request access, please use this form.
GVMM includes historical data and forecasted future intelligence (through 2040) on essential datapoints. All data is vetted by Linksbridge market experts and data scientists.
GVMM data is available under a Creative Commons attribution/noncommercial/“share alike” 4.0 international license. You are welcome to use it in your work.
Please:
Source us appropriately
And “share alike,” i.e., distribute resulting material under the same license terms
We also ask that you clearly distinguish your analysis from ours, and that you please refrain from stating or implying our endorsement of any findings other than our own.
We predefine levels of access to data and information based on a global access agreement with the grant owner assisting us to provide individual assets:
Global health and international development organizations can increase their access level by applying to an asset’s grant owner. Please contact us for details.
Global health suppliers can increase their access level through fulfilling the criteria of their industry partner program, e.g., by providing more information on their company’s product pipeline, pricing, share or country registrations. Please contact your program manager for details.
Consultants and consulting firms share the same access level as their client and should apply through their client.
As agreed with our funders, consultants and consulting firms cannot independently access Linksbridge data and information as of August 1, 2022.
GVMM calculates buffer stock as (Demand in year x - Demand in year x-1) * 25%. Buffer is added only in the calculation of demand for routine immunization.
Country demand by vaccine is forecasted for each year based on the immunization schedule as reported by countries or as projected for new vaccine introductions. The target population (age and sex) is multiplied by the number of doses, the projected coverage/uptake and wastage rate. Buffer is added where demand is increasing. (Buffer and demand are applied to calculation of routine demand only.)
GVMM uses different sources to project immediate and longer-term vaccine introductions:
For the immediate term, GVMM shows planned and projected new vaccine introductions using WHO/UNICEF’s Joint Reporting Form, our weekly media monitoring, and information available from academic and partner sources, e.g., the Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium and Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health’s International Vaccine Access Center. This forecast focuses on licensed and late-stage products.
For the longer term, GVMM uses a machine learning approach to combine the availability of future products, diseases burdens, and countries’ vaccine introduction track records to simulate potential introduction patterns. A simulation that introduces a vaccine affects subsequent introduction opportunities as health system capacity is absorbed. Agent-based modeling allows countries to adopt based on procurement group, peer interest, and changing market economics. This forecast focuses on early-stage and potential products.
GVMM uses WUENIC coverage estimates (historical) for BCG, DTP1, and MCV1 for routine immunization only.
We then apply coverage type based on immunization target age:
Projected for the purpose of demand forecasting as: if coverage <70% then 3% annual increase; 1% annual increase up to 90% (or highest historical if >90%)
For HPV, Gavi-provided coverage is used for Gavi-supported countries and regional coverage estimates are applied to non-Gavi countries
For new vaccine introductions, uptake is also applied: standard for all countries is 80% in year one, 100% in year two
Exceptions are: full uptake in 3 years – DRC; full uptake in 4 years – India (Uttar Pradesh), Nigeria, Pakistan; full uptake in 5 years – Indonesia
For current country immunization schedules, GVMM uses WHO-UNICEF's Joint Reporting Form and the European CDC's Vaccine Scheduler.
GVMM applies wastage based on doses per vial and presentation (per the table below) unless a country-specific wastage rate is available:
GVMM includes all vaccine products for all countries (at country level) for the period 2000-2040.
1. Demand module includes licensed vaccines for:
Public pediatric markets
Public school-age markets
Most public supplementary immunization activities
Some public adult vaccines
2. Supply module includes all licensed and candidate vaccines
3. Pricing module includes all licensed and some candidate vaccines
4. Share module includes all licensed vaccines
5. Private Markets module includes all private, hospital, military, and traveler markets
More than half of our data (by volume) comes from aggregating publicly available sources such as UNPD’s World Population Prospects, IMF and WHO/UNICEF’s annual Joint Reporting Form.
Linksbridge’s media monitoring team contributes our next largest area of content from its weekly analysis of press releases and news reports covering product development, industry deals, and other topics of interest.
We complement this information with research—often using mystery shopping—most frequently in 17 middle-income countries, including Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa.
Some companies report to us their marketed and pipeline products, country registrations, pricing, and share on a voluntary basis.
Linksbridge also subscribes to paid-for data sources to supplement our research.
Finally, we create net new datasets through our own modeling.
IHME has asked us to not use its data for our work (including our public goods). No information shared in our assets uses IHME data.
Global demand for vaccines varies depending on what we include in any given analysis.
Commonly, we show in footnotes or a data caption that we are including only demand from routine immunization or routine immunization and campaigns.
Unless stated specifically, demand forecasts exclude demand for private, hospital, military and traveler vaccines.
Very often we exclude oral polio vaccine (OPV and nOPV) campaigns because of their very high volumes and uncertainty around their continuation.
Linksbridge has a nine-level public market price tier model. The levels are:
1. USA
2. Super HICs
3. HICs
4. UMICs
5. China
6. Other LMICs
7. India
8. PAHO
9. UNICEF
We group countries by these levels based on historical, current or projected GNI/head because these are the price tiers countries pay according to available data observations.
GVMM’s guiding principles are:
• Free, forever, for everyone qualifying for access
• No commercial use
• Never the official view of individual global health actors
As advised by our donors, we:
• Disclose our annual work plan
• Offer twice-yearly status reporting
• Invite donors to propose priorities
