Last week, I had the opportunity to present at Palisade’s 2014 Best Practices in Risk and Decision Analysis Conference in Seattle. This intensive one-day conference on quantitative risk analysis featured a selection of real-world case studies and software training on how to manage risk and uncertainty in a wide range of business applications.
Supporting global health and development initiatives is a major component of Linksbridge’s current portfolio. Without proper methods for incorporating uncertainty and risk, analyzing supply and demand for life-saving health commodities in developing countries is a major challenge. Accurate demand forecasting is complicated by underlying uncertainty around market adoption and uptake, fluctuations in budgets and purchasing power, losses in distribution chain, etc. There are major risks on the supply side as well, including R&D, manufacturing, and regulatory risks. My presentation ( “Market Analysis and Optimization in Global Health using @RISK, RISKOptimizer and PrecisionTree”) covered the application of Palisade’s DecisionTools Suite for analyzing global health markets, optimizing savings, and improving decision-making to increase health impact and ‘value for money’ achieved from funding for health products.
Linksbridge understands the importance of conducting risk-adjusted analysis. We do not present “the answer” to our clients, but see it as our responsibility to inform decision-makers about the range of possible outcomes and the likelihood of each taking place. We regularly use probabilistic modeling techniques for forecasting, business case assessment, real options analysis, etc.
As one who loves data and rigorous quantitative analysis, working at Linksbridge is interesting and fun! I get to run complicated Monte Carlo simulations, develop complex decision trees, conduct investment portfolio optimization and perform time series analyses, and the output of my work has an important impact on human lives. What could be a better way to spend your day?